Obama’s decision comes at a critical time for Cuba. The island is vitally dependent on aid in the form of subsidized oil from Venezuela. Caracas provides roughly 115,000 barrels of oil a day to Cuba, roughly two-thirds of Cuban consumption, with annual subsidies worth more than $6 billion. The fall in oil prices and political instability at home have put a major question mark over Venezuela’s ability to continue providing that subsidy. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, credit default swaps imply that markets predict a 97 percent probability that Venezuela will default on bonds within five years.
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